Week 5, Settled
Week 5 was the first week of the confidence card: the model's most confident picks, ranked. The model's picks finished ahead; one short-priced Analyst pick took the week just under even.
Season to date on published plays: 104–138–8, −25.35u.
The week in brief
Seventeen plays, 13.0u risked, 10–7 for −0.36u. Model picks went 7–5 (+0.34u); Analyst picks went 3–2 (−0.70u).
Xavier Hutchinson, Jalen Hurts and Tyson Bagent cashed at the top of the card. Cam Ward did not throw a touchdown, and Konata Mumpfield was active on Monday night but drew no target while Puka Nacua caught 17.
The costly miss was ours: Dallas on the moneyline at −470 for two units. Tampa Bay won 24–16, and two units at that price risked a lot to win a little. Kyren Williams, George Pickens and Bucky Irving covered the other Analyst picks.
What we are watching for Week 6
Drake Maye beat a passing-touchdown under for the second week running, with four against Las Vegas. Our touchdown rates for quarterbacks still lean on the league average, and we are testing a per-quarterback rate before it touches the card. Drake London missed his under by one catch.
Every play, all 17
Swipe the table sideways for price, result and units.
| Pick | Game | Market | Track | Stake | Price | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL ML | TB @ DAL | Moneyline | Analyst | 2.0u | -470 | Lost | -2.00 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford Over 0.5 receptions | TB @ DAL | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -130 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Dak Prescott Under 2.5 passing tds | TB @ DAL | Pass TDs | Edge | 0.5u | -178 | Won | +0.28 |
| George Pickens Over 4.5 receptions | TB @ DAL | Receptions | Analyst | 0.5u | -121 | Won | +0.41 |
| Cade Otton Over 3.5 receptions | TB @ DAL | Receptions | Analyst | 0.5u | -109 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Bucky Irving Over 13.5 rush attempts | TB @ DAL | Rush attempts | Analyst | 0.5u | -107 | Won | +0.47 |
| Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 passing tds | PHI @ JAX | Pass TDs | Strong edge | 1.0u | -216 | Won | +0.46 |
| Tyson Bagent Under 1.5 passing tds | CHI @ GB | Pass TDs | Strong edge | 1.0u | -124 | Won | +0.81 |
| Kaleb Johnson Under 9.5 rush attempts | CHI @ GB | Rush attempts | Edge | 0.5u | -125 | Won | +0.40 |
| Cam Ward Over 0.5 passing tds | HOU @ TEN | Pass TDs | Strong edge | 1.0u | -179 | Lost | -1.00 |
| Xavier Hutchinson Over 1.5 receptions | HOU @ TEN | Receptions | Strong edge | 1.0u | +119 | Won | +1.19 |
| Drake Maye Under 1.5 passing tds | LV @ NE | Pass TDs | Edge | 0.5u | -103 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Justin Jefferson Under 6.5 receptions | MIN @ NO | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -132 | Won | +0.38 |
| Rashod Bateman Over 1.5 receptions | BAL @ ATL | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -155 | Won | +0.32 |
| Drake London Under 6.5 receptions | BAL @ ATL | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -147 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Konata Mumpfield Over 0.5 receptions | BUF @ LA | Receptions | Strong edge | 1.0u | -173 | Lost | -1.00 |
| Kyren Williams Over 22.5 receiving yards | BUF @ LA | Receiving yards | Analyst | 1.0u | -109 | Won | +0.92 |