Week 4, Settled
Week 4 was the first week of the screen: a smaller card, chosen only where the model and the market leaned the same way. It finished close to even.
Season to date on published plays: 94–131–8, −24.99u.
The week in brief
Fourteen plays, 7.5u risked, 8–6 for −0.43u. The losses no longer landed on the biggest stakes, which is what the screen was built to do. Model picks went 7–4 (+0.65u); Analyst picks went 1–2 (−1.08u).
The misses were quarterback touchdown unders: Drake Maye and Kirk Cousins both threw two or more, and the pass-TD plays went 1–3. Receptions carried the week at 5–3.
What changes for Week 5
From Week 5 the card is the model's ten most confident picks, in the markets where its confidence has ranked results, five at one unit and five at half a unit. Our research still holds any pick the facts contradict, and the next one moves up. Every pick keeps its read.
Every play, all 14
Swipe the table sideways for price, result and units.
| Pick | Game | Market | Track | Stake | Price | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. Under 4.5 receptions | PIT @ CLE | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -130 | Won | +0.38 |
| Ryan Flournoy Under 3.5 receptions | DAL @ HOU | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -119 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Daniel Jones Over 1.5 passing tds | IND @ WAS | Pass TDs | Analyst | 0.5u | +105 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Tyler Warren Over 5.5 receptions | IND @ WAS | Receptions | Analyst | 1.0u | -135 | Lost | -1.00 |
| Ja'Marr Chase Under 7.5 receptions | JAX @ CIN | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -135 | Won | +0.37 |
| Parker Washington Under 5.5 receptions | JAX @ CIN | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -137 | Won | +0.36 |
| Trevor Lawrence Under 3.5 rush attempts | JAX @ CIN | Rush attempts | Edge | 0.5u | -120 | Won | +0.42 |
| Kirk Cousins Under 1.5 passing tds | KC @ LV | Pass TDs | Edge | 0.5u | -157 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Drake Maye Under 1.5 passing tds | NE @ BUF | Pass TDs | Edge | 0.5u | -163 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Hunter Henry Under 3.5 receptions | NE @ BUF | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -147 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Rome Odunze Over 2.5 receptions | NYJ @ CHI | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -121 | Won | +0.41 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Under 1.5 passing tds | ATL @ NO | Pass TDs | Edge | 0.5u | -149 | Won | +0.34 |
| Tyler Shough Over 35.5 pass attempts | ATL @ NO | Pass attempts | Analyst | 0.5u | -120 | Won | +0.42 |
| Bijan Robinson Under 4.5 receptions | ATL @ NO | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -135 | Won | +0.37 |